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Hurricane forecast to make landfall along the Gulf Coast next week
Sept. 22, 2024
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People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive on Thursday. |
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AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Sept. 22, 2024
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “This setup has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.”
AccuWeather was the first source to issue a track and intensity forecast Sunday afternoon. AccuWeather was also the first known source, starting on Sept. 13, to warn of tropical development that could bring direct impacts to the U.S. during the final full week of September.
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane. There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.”
This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023. The next tropical storm name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
“There are a lot of tall pine trees in Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast area. Those trees can be incredibly dangerous in hurricane-force winds. We saw a lot of trees fall onto houses and damage parked cars when Idalia hit the Big Bend region last August,” DaSilva warned. “We expect this evolving storm threat to rapidly intensify into a hurricane. Don’t wait to prepare if you’re in the path of this storm. There is a possibility that we could be dealing with a major hurricane at landfall.”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting a widespread 4-8 inches of rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Region through Saturday, with a zone of 8-12 inches of rain possible near the landfall zone. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 24 inches of rainfall.
Powerful wind gusts of 100-120 miles per hour are expected in the area where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 140 mph.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” said Porter. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
DaSilva is urging people across the entire Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana to closely monitor AccuWeather forecast updates this week.
“The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm tracks any farther west, we could end up dealing with serious storm surge and flooding problems in Tampa,” DaSilva said.
There is a risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeast Alabama on Thursday. The tornado risk will shift north on Friday to eastern Alabama, much of Georgia, southwestern South Carolina and parts of far southeast Tennessee.
“Tornadoes embedded in tropical rainbands can be incredibly dangerous, especially after dark,” warned Porter. “Make sure to have your cell phone fully charged and download the AccuWeather app to get tornado warnings and severe weather alerts. It’s a good idea to review safety plans with your family, too. If a tornado warning is issued in your area, make sure you take shelter in a sturdy interior room on the lowest level, away from exterior doors and windows. It’s also important to review evacuation zones and routes if you live near the coast.”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is a risk of widespread power outages where this storm makes landfall, and across the Tallahassee region. Regional and localized power outages are expected across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region, as well as across much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee and pockets of far western South Carolina and North Carolina.
“Hurricanes can bring dangerous and life-threatening impacts hundreds of miles inland after they make landfall. Flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts are a major concern,” said Porter. “We will have important forecast updates all week on the AccuWeather app and the AccuWeather.comHurricane Center.”
Conditions are conducive for tropical development and rapid intensification. DaSilva said water temperatures at the surface, and hundreds of feet deep across much of the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, are near or at record high levels.
“Water temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm right now,” DaSilva said. “All of the ingredients are in place for rapid intensification, and there are no major hurdles in the way that would prevent this storm from exploding in intensity before it makes landfall.”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists also say there is a moderate risk to lives and property in western Cuba and parts of the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as the storm develops on Tuesday and Wednesday, with 1-3 feet of storm surge possible in those areas.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists warned in August that conditions for tropical development would improve in September, following a historic lull during the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather was the first known source to reduce the forecast for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes expected during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season following the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades.
AccuWeather Forecast Graphics
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
Concern growing for a hurricane strike on US Gulf Coast late this week
Hurricane Tracking & Storm Radar
AccuWeather Reduces Forecast for Number of Named Storms and Hurricanes During 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes Near Coastline Pose Major Threat To US This Season
