AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Sept. 29, 2024

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the area from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico will remain a potential tropical development zone into the first half of October. Over the next week, one to two tropical storms could be born in this zone and potentially steered across part of the southeastern U.S.  

"A zone of low pressure will form across the western Caribbean, accompanied by clusters of tropical downpours and thunderstorms over the next several days," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny. "This feature will shift into a zone with decent prospects for tropical development with abnormally warm ocean waters and where pockets of limited disruptive breezes are currently low. Due to these factors, our team of expert meteorologists is highlighting a high risk for tropical development." 

Wind shear will remain low initially but will tend to increase over the Gulf of Mexico later this week. As these southwesterly breezes increase, they will tend to cause moisture and any tropical feature that has formed or is trying to form to be guided to the north or east later this week into next weekend. 

Downpours are likely along the Gulf Coast later this week from Louisiana to Florida, as well as in Georgia and the Carolinas.  

“AccuWeather expert meteorologists are monitoring the potential for heavy rain and damaging winds that may span from areas of Louisiana to Florida, especially following the devastating impacts from Hurricane Helene last week,” said Glenny. “Additional rain and wind would exacerbate already existing damage and prolong cleanup efforts across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast states.” 

Should steering breezes remain weak, then a track toward Louisiana could occur. Should strong steering breezes from the southwest occur, then a track toward Florida and perhaps the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas would be more likely. 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there will be significant differences between this new tropical threat and Hurricane Helene. A non-tropical storm dove southward through the central U.S. last week, providing additional energy to Helene and helping to send it north into the southern Appalachians and then west toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. 

"Helene was a large tropical disturbance that moved into a highly conducive environment for rapid strengthening. In addition to the very warm water, there was very little wind shear in front of Helene," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. "This week's disturbance will likely be slow to develop as it expands northward, encountering more land masses and wind shear. There will also not be any storm diving southward through the central U.S. to provide that extra energy and northward pull." 

AccuWeather experts issued a preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Helene in the United States of $95-$110 billion.  

The most likely scenario with this week's tropical feature is that it will get drawn north to a point over the Gulf but then shunted northeast late this week. 

"The anticipated stiffening southwesterly wind shear may prevent this storm from rapidly strengthening and may even split it apart into two separate entities--the second one may follow the first one a few days later," explained Anderson. "If this first tropical feature can fight off the wind shear, then it will have the potential to be a bigger, more compact storm and could prevent the formation of the second feature." 

The next names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton. 

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Hurricane Helene to roar ashore in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3

AccuWeather Issues Forecast for Tropical Storm Helene Earlier Than Any Other Known Source  

Hurricane Tracking & Storm Radar   

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes Near Coastline Pose Major Threat To US This Season