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Tropical Rainstorm Will Soak Florida With More Than A Foot Of Rain This Week

June 10, 2024

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> Drenching downpours could lead to flash flooding across Florida through Sunday.

> The surge of tropical moisture will help reduce the risk of wildfires and bring
relief to areas experiencing drought conditions after record-shattering heat.

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – June 12, 2024


Updated forecast graphics from the AccuWeather team:



AccuWeather Global Weather Center – June 10, 2024


AccuWeather expert meteorologists are closely monitoring the threat of a slow-moving tropical rainstorm developing over the Gulf of Mexico this week, bringing more than foot of rain to parts of Florida.




Relentless rounds of rain could lead to flash flooding issues across the Florida Peninsula later this week.


“The bullseye is on southwest Florida along the Gulf Coast,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “Severe weather will be limited. The big threat is going to be flooding. Warm air at the surface and cold air aloft makes for a very unstable atmosphere. With a dip in the jet stream this far south, it’s going to pull a lot of tropical moisture north into Florida.”




Tropical downpours are forecast to arrive in South Florida on Tuesday. AccuWeather is forecasting 8 to 12 inches of rainfall across much of Southwest Florida through Sunday. Some spots could see up to 22 inches of rain this week, according to the AccuWeather Local StormMax.


“We are concerned about a ‘wall of rain’ inundating Florida this week,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok. “While we can’t rule out an organized tropical depression or storm, the impact will be similar due to the rounds of tropical downpours.”


Impacts will expand north across Florida through the week. Drenching rain could disrupt plans for vacationers and residents trying to visit beaches, amusement parks, and other outdoor attractions.




AccuWeather expert meteorologists say this tropical rainstorm will linger around Florida longer than most tropical systems due to light winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The lack of any other approaching storms or strong jet stream winds will allow this tropical rainstorm to remain over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, pumping rich tropical moisture info Florida for several days.


Areas still recovering and rebuilding after destructive winds and storm surge from Hurricane Ian in 2022 could be impacted by drenching rain and flooding issues this week. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say rainfall totals this week could rival rainfall totals from some of the powerful hurricanes that have made landfall in Florida in recent years.




AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there are no signs of a tropical storm rapidly forming and intensifying at this time, but “weak” storms have recently led to torrential downpours and flooding issues in some of the northern islands of the Caribbean.


Tropical Rainfall Will Help Combat Drought & Wildfire Concerns


Flash flooding is a major concern across much of Florida this week, but the rain and clouds will provide a break from recent record-breaking heat in the Sunshine State. The rainfall will also reduce the risk wildfires and help improve drought conditions that have expanded across central and southern Florida.


Less than 15 inches of rainfall has been reported in Fort Myers, Florida so far this year, which is only 68 percent of the historical average.


More than 50 percent of the state of Florida is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions, as of June 4. Records show that just 3.2 percent of the state was dealing with dry or drought conditions in early March.




“Central and south Florida are currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. There are portions of central and south Florida have only received 50 to 70 percent of the rainfall they should, year to date,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “This lack of rainfall has led to expansion of drought conditions this spring.”


Tropical Rainfall Will Help Combat Drought & Wildfire Concerns


AccuWeather expert meteorologists and long-range forecasters are closely monitoring the tropics for any additional threats in the coming weeks.


The AccuWeather 2024 Hurricane Forecast issued in March predicts an ‘explosive’ season. AccuWeather expert meteorologists predict 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes. The forecast warns of 4 to 6 direct impacts on the United States this year.




“There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year.

Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” said DaSilva.


The first tropical storm of the season typically forms around June 20 and the first hurricane of the season forms around August 11, according to historical averages in the Atlantic basin.


DaSilva says the unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and across much of the Main Development Region has AccuWeather expert meteorologists concerned about the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes developing and rapidly intensifying near the coast this year.



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