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AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Sept. 25, 2024

“Helene is expected to rapidly grow into a very large and powerful hurricane. The threat of storm surge along the Big Bend of Florida is life-threatening and destructive,” warned AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Serious impacts will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.” 

Helene is forecast to make landfall Thursday night as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say it is possible that Helene could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane and maintain that strength at landfall with maximum sustained winds of 131 to 155 miles per hour.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say 140- to 150-miles-per-hour wind gusts are possible along the Gulf Coast where Helene makes landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph. A widespread zone of 40- to 60-miles-per-hour winds will extend across most of Florida and much of the Southeast as Helene pushes inland. 

“Helene has the potential to become a once-in-a-generation storm,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “People in the path of this storm need to be prepared for power outages hundreds of miles away from where Helene makes landfall that could last for a week or more.” 

DaSilva says Helene could push 15-20 feet of storm surge into parts of the Big Bend region of Florida. Parts of the Tampa Bay area could experience 6-10 feet of storm surge.  

“Water is the deadliest threat in a hurricane. There is an extreme risk of a devastating storm surge. Please follow evacuation orders and get away from the coast,” warned DaSilva.  

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting a zone of 8-12 inches of rainfall across the Big Bend and Tallahassee regions of Florida, through western Georgia. Western parts of the Carolinas will see 12-18 inches of rainfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches.  

AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin says Helene could cause a flooding disaster in some areas of the Southeast, especially in the higher terrain of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. This is due to the combination of rain ahead of Helene Wednesday and Wednesday night and then another thrust of torrential rain Thursday and Thursday night as Helene moves inland. In this area, rainfall of 12-18 inches can fall, with the heaviest coming within only a few hours when the rain rate can exceed 2 inches per hour, which is enough to cause significant, life-threatening flooding.  

“The inland rainfall risk from Helene is significant. We could see catastrophic flooding across the southern Appalachians. We’ve already seen plenty of rain across Atlanta into the western Carolinas ahead of Helene. We’re concerned about significant flooding once this storm moves into Georgia and pushes north,” said DePodwin. “There is an extreme risk to lives and property in the southern Appalachians.” 

The risk is greatest in the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians, where mudslides and rockslides can occur. Some communities may be cut off with no way to enter or exit if there is damage to infrastructure such as bridges and roadways. 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say people should also be prepared for spin-up tornadoes on the eastern side of the storm track across parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina Thursday. The tornado threat expands north to parts of North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia Friday. 

AccuWeather is now forecasting Hurricane Helene to be a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact ™ Scale for Hurricanes. This is due to: 

• Significant risk of catastrophic inland flooding, especially from northern Georgia to western North Carolina. 
   

• Widespread inland wind damage that can cause extended power outages. 
   

• Increasing risk of significant power outages and flooding in the Atlanta metro area. 
   

• Increasing risk that the storm could make landfall as a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph). 
    

• In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.  

   

  AccuWeather was the first known source to issue a track and intensity forecast for this hurricane threat on Sunday. 

   

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Hurricane Helene to roar ashore in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3

AccuWeather Issues Forecast for Tropical Storm Helene Earlier Than Any Other Known Source  

Hurricane Tracking & Storm Radar   

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes Near Coastline Pose Major Threat To US This Season