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Second severe weather season shifting into high gear in the central US
Oct. 30, 2024
> Storms could dampen trick-or-treating in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Thursday evening
> Rounds of storms and flash flooding threat across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa this weekend through Election Day
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 30, 2024
“It has been months since we’ve seen a severe weather threat across such a broad swath of the central United States. Strong cold fronts and the clash of temperatures in late-October and November spark the second severe weather season,” said AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, western Missouri, eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
“We’ve had record-setting heat in Kansas. Now, we have a strong cold front pushing in that will be the trigger for severe weather,” said AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson.
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says there is a risk of damaging winds, hail and even localized tornadoes in the region, which includes the Oklahoma City and Kansas City metro areas.
“Whenever it gets this warm at this time of year in places like Kansas City, look out for the possibility of severe weather,” warned Rayno. “The fronts we’ve seen in recent weeks haven’t had much moisture, but this cold front is different. There’s a surge of moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico.”
DePodwin says people in the region should review severe weather plans with family members and coworkers.
“These severe thunderstorms can produce damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. A few of the tornadoes could be intense, and the tornado risk will continue after dark. Make sure you have a way of getting severe weather warnings overnight, like the AccuWeather app,” said DePodwin. “Make sure your storm shelter or safe place is ready in case a tornado warning is issued in your community. If you have access to a garage or parking garage, you may want to move your vehicle under cover to prevent any hail damage.”
Soggy trick-or-treating on Halloween night
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says storms and gusty wind could spin up some Halloween drama for trick-or-treaters on Thursday evening.
"In the Midwest, Mississippi Valley and parts of the Plains, winds will kick up, potentially tossing fall decorations around and sending fallen leaves racing through neighborhoods for a creepy appearance," said Pastelok. "Claps of thunder will mean that the lightning bolts are close enough to be of concern for those outdoors. Anyone outdoors should move inside at the first rumble of thunder."
The showers and thunderstorms will mark the approach of a strong cold front. Warmth that begins during the day in parts of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley will be followed by a swift chill as the evening progresses. People in this area should dress appropriately for this change. Around St. Louis, for example, balmy conditions will be fleeting as temperatures tumble to the 50s and 40s, with a gusty wind adding to the chill in the evening.
Pastelok says storms could also spoil Halloween fun in parts of the Northwest.
"A major problem area on Halloween will be in the Northwest where a storm will bring areas of rain and mountain snow from Washington and Oregon to parts of Northern California, northern Idaho and western Montana," Pastelok said.
Threat of storms & flash flooding this weekend
A predominantly dry pattern that has persisted since the summer over much of the central United States is about to abruptly change with the risk of rounds of downpours and thunderstorms starting Saturday through Election Day.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is the potential for 2-4 inches of rain to fall, with local amounts of 4-8 inches from Saturday to Tuesday from central Texas to Illinois and Iowa and perhaps as far to the north as parts of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The heaviest rain is forecast to fall in eastern Kansas, where 8-12 inches of rainfall is possible between Saturday and Tuesday, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches.
Cities such as Dallas, Texas, and Kansas City, Missouri, have received only about 30 percent of their historical average rainfall since the start of August.
River, lake and reservoir levels in parts of this area are extremely low compared to the historical average.
Water levels on the central and lower part of the Mississippi River are on par with low marks set during the last two years. For example, in Memphis, Tennessee, water levels are forecast to dip within a foot of record low marks set a little over a year ago. That record low level is minus 12.04 feet, set on Oct. 17, 2023.
The Mississippi River is a major transportation route that is often inexpensive compared to rail and truck. When water levels are this low, tug and barge traffic on the waterway is limited due to the narrow shipping channel and shallow water, which could cause barges to run aground and delay shipments. With fewer tugs moving barges with less cargo, shipping is much less cost-efficient, and those costs may be pushed along to the consumer.
Second severe weather season returns
Severe weather can occur at any time of the year, but the primary severe weather season occurs in the central and southern United States in March, April and May. During these months, conditions are ripe for tornado-producing thunderstorms as warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with cold air from the north.
Weather patterns similar to spring can unfold in the U.S. during the autumn months, resulting in a secondary peak in severe weather.
"As the jet stream dips farther south and once again jet stream disturbances become stronger with increasing temperature variations across the country, the remaining late-summer warmth clashes with incoming chillier air from the north," explained AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. "It is critically important for people and businesses to know how they are going to react to move to safe shelter if a tornado warning is issued, regardless of the day of the year.”
Two key factors in the second severe weather season are the presence of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and the overall path of storms from the Pacific that traverse the country.
Major severe weather outbreaks have occurred multiple times during the month of November, including in 1989, 2005 and 2015. These three outbreaks alone spawned 580 tornadoes from the Gulf Coast to areas as far north as Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York and as far west as Kansas and Nebraska.
AccuWeather Forecast Graphics
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
Drought to downpours: Rain could trigger flooding in Central US
Ghoulish gusts and sinister storms for some on Halloween