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Rain and thunderstorms could impact 2024 Election Day voter turnout

Oct. 29, 2024

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> AccuWeather is forecasting more impactful weather compared to the 2020 Election Day  
 

> Risk of thunderstorms across parts of the Gulf Coast and central U.S. to the Great Lakes and New England  

 
> Warm and dry weather is forecast in areas where temporary polling locations will be used in areas impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton   

 
 

>> Request an interview with AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok on the Election Day forecast and the risk for rain and thunderstorms 

 

>> Request an interview with AccuWeather Senior Vice President and Election Weather Expert Evan Myers on the weather factors that can impact voter turnout and election outcomes

 

 

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 29, 2024

 
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say voters and election officials should be prepared for the possibility of rain or thunderstorms across more than 20 states on Election Day.  
 
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“AccuWeather is forecasting rain and thunderstorms across the middle of the country as a cold front sweeps across this area near or on Election Day. The specific impacts depend on the timing of the front,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “The middle of the country is the area to watch for possible weather disruptions at the polls. Michigan and Wisconsin are two swing states where we could be dealing with wet weather on Election Day.” 

 

The AccuWeather 2024 Election Day Forecast calls for more wet and potentially disruptive weather, compared to the AccuWeather 2020 Election Day Forecast, which accurately predicted dry and mild weather across much of the western and central U.S., rain in the Pacific Northwest, brisk and chilly weather in the Northeast, and a mix of rain and snow in parts of New England during the last presidential Election Day.  

 

Election Day Rain & Storms 

 

AccuWeather is forecasting the risk of significant rainfall and the threat of flash flooding starting Saturday through Election Day across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa.  

 

“It will be warm out ahead of this front, so we expect some thunderstorms in places like Little Rock, Memphis, and maybe as far north as southern Illinois. The lower to mid-Mississippi Valley extending into the western Tennessee Valley could be dealing with thunderstorms on Election Day,” said Pastelok. “The forecast for thunderstorms and lightning could be disruptive and even dangerous, especially if there are people outside waiting in line to vote. Check the forecast on the AccuWeather app before heading to the polls.” 

 

Pastelok says showers are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, and New England.  

 

The hourly forecast, AccuWeather MinuteCast®, and Lightning Alerts are available for free to all users on the AccuWeather app. Lightning Alerts will notify AccuWeather app users with an alert when lightning strikes within 10 miles of their location.  

 

Election Day Forecast for Hurricane-Damaged Areas 

 

AccuWeather long-range experts are forecasting pleasant weather on Election Day across areas of Florida, Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the Carolinas that were impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.  

 

Temporary polling sites have been set up in areas that were damaged by strong winds, storm surge, and flash flooding just weeks before Election Day. 

 

“The weather should be fine in areas impacted by the recent hurricanes. If the front is moving a little faster, we need to keep an eye out for the potential of rain and storms in parts of Tennessee and northwestern Georgia on Tuesday night,” said Pastelok.  

 

Warm & Dry Along Much of the East Coast 

 

Pastelok says Election Day should be dry and warm across much of the East Coast.  

 

“It should be a dry and pleasant Election Day along the I-95 corridor from Boston through New York, all the way down to the Carolinas and even much of Florida,” said Pastelok. “We’re not expecting any weather disruptions for voters or poll workers.” 

 

High temperatures on Election Day are forecast to be above the historical average along much of the I-95 corridor from Boston through Daytona Beach.  

 

Chilly & Wintry Weather in the Rockies 

 

AccuWeather is forecasting a chilly Election Day across parts of Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and northern Arizona.  

 

Snow showers are also possible in parts of central and western Colorado and northern Arizona on Nov. 5. 

 

“We could see some snow west of Denver and north of Flagstaff on Election Day. Don’t be surprised if you see some snow flying in the higher elevations of the Four Corners region,” said Pastelok. 

 

How the Weather Can Impact Voter Turnout & Election Outcomes 

 

Thunderstorms, cold conditions, snow and ice have all played a major role in Election Days turnout throughout history, but AccuWeather Senior Vice President and Election Weather Expert Evan Myers says the weather plays a smaller role in voter turnout now than it did just a few decades ago.  

 

“You can't get away from the weather in any human endeavor, including voting. The impact weather has on voting is not as significant or impactful as it once was because so many people are now voting early in person or by mail,” Myers explained. “A majority of people still vote on Election Day, but there are a lot more people voting early.” 

 

Myers says recent impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton will likely have a bigger impact on voting logistics and voter turnout compared to the weather on Election Day.  

 

“They have been scrambling in western North Carolina to try to figure out how to find places for people to vote. Normal polling places aren’t there any more in some cases and records were destroyed in the flooding,” said Myers. “The impacts from extreme weather that happened weeks ago will likely have a bigger impact on voting, compared to the actual weather on Election Day.” 

 

The forecast for rain could impact Election Day turnout in swing states like Wisconsin.  

 

“We expect some rain in Wisconsin on Election Day. Heavy rain is possible in northern Wisconsin. Northern rural Wisconsin leans Republican, so the weather could tamp down some of the Republican turnout,” Myers explained. “If there is rain or thunderstorms in more populated places like Milwaukee or Madison, that could impact turnout in cities that are heavily Democratic.” 

 

Myers says the forecast for rain and thunderstorms in parts of Texas could impact turnout and potentially the outcome of state and local races.  

 

“Texas has an extremely close senate race. We expect rain and storms in Houston, Austin, and San Antonio on Election Day,” said Myers. “The Election Day weather could deter voter turnout in Texas and have a major impact in very close races, especially if there are storms with lightning moving into cities with long lines at polling places.” 

 

Storms, rain, cold conditions, and snow on Election Day can also have a bigger impact on turnout for younger voters, compared to older voters.  

 

“It’s interesting. There's always been this common thought that older people don't turn out to vote when the weather is adverse. That’s actually not the case,” explained Myers. “Older voters are usually more committed than younger voters. The turnout is based on their enthusiasm for the candidate and their commitment to voting as opposed to the weather.” 

 

The History of Weather & Election Day 

 

The selection of Election Day in American history has deep ties to the weather and agriculture.  

 

“Prior to 1845, there was a 34-day period when people could vote. Congress passed a law in 1845 making the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November as Election Day. Why did they pick the beginning of November? It didn't interfere with farming. They selected a day that was not in the spring when people were planting crops, and a day after the harvest but before the harshness of winter,” Myers explained. “Roughly 90 percent of Americans lived or worked on farms in the 1840s. Congress picked a day that wouldn’t interfere with agriculture and a time of year that wouldn’t be too cold or snowy.” 

 

 

 

 

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

 

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Additional AccuWeather Resources:

   

   

 

  

   

    

    

    

    

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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