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Another mild winter is on tap with reduced heating demand across much of the central and eastern United States
Oct. 14, 2024
> Lower risk compared to historical average of damaging freeze for the citrus industry in Florida following repeated impacts from the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
> Heating demand is projected to be lower than the historical average but higher compared to last winter
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 14, 2024
Three Key Factors
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says three key factors will play a major role in the patterns and weather trends expected across the U.S. this winter.
“We had the warmest winter season on record last December through February. This winter, we expect much of the country to see mild temperatures again,” said Pastelok. "During a strong La Niña we typically see a dominant storm track over the northwest U.S. and western Canada. We will have a weaker La Niña for most of this winter. There could be changes in the storm track during the course of this winter season. It could dive farther south into California, which we do expect this year. This can result in periods of mild Pacific air moving across the central and eastern U.S. at times. However, with a weak signal of La Nina, some cold can make pushes into the Midwest and Northeast."
The La Niña phenomenon occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period, which can significantly influence weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms.
The second factor is the polar vortex, which is a mass of cold air that is tightly bound to polar regions by strong counterclockwise winds known as the “polar low.” When the polar vortex is strong, the polar jet stream locks bitterly cold, dry air in place over the Arctic. When strong, these winds essentially act as an unscalable wall that frigid air cannot breach.
When the polar vortex is pressured from the outside and loses its strength, it allows bursts of frigid air to slip past its defenses and effects can be felt thousands of miles away from the Arctic.
While a strong polar vortex may sound more daunting, it is actually a weaker polar vortex that leads to more impacts being felt in the U.S.
Based on data from previous winters with a similar setup to the upcoming season, Pastelok says February is the most probable month for the polar vortex to usher a blast of bitterly cold air across the eastern U.S.
The third key factor is the temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern and Northeast Pacific. Water temperatures in the Gulf are expected to be higher than historical averages, which can contribute to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.
The warmer-than-average water temperatures in the northern Pacific could alter the storm track at times during the winter for the West Coast, impacting the entire U.S.
Heating Demand Expected to Drop
AccuWeather long-range experts say the demand for heating this winter will be below the historical average across roughly 75 percent of the U.S. this season.
"December through February, the warmest areas of the country, compared to the average, are going to be from the South, central southern Plains states through the Mississippi Valley, up through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys," Pastelok explained.
A combination of La Niña keeping the storm track over the northern part of the country most of the winter, above-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, and mild Pacific air occasionally flowing into the Plains and East will limit the potential for cold air to have a sustained presence across the southern U.S.
AccuWeather long-range experts say temperatures throughout the season could run more than 3 degrees above the historical average much of the Gulf Coast and south-central region, including Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta and Nashville. This will result in a noticeable reduction in heating demand and lower utility bills.
If a significant surge of cold air delivers subfreezing weather to the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida, it is most likely to occur in February, although the month as a whole is still projected to be milder than normal.
Snow Outlook in the East & Midwest
Most areas in the Northeast are expected to receive more snow this season than last winter. An uptick in snow is also likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
However, the snow will be broken up by pauses in the cold, wintry weather, especially in the middle part of the season, as milder air from the Pacific flows across the country.
December is the first month of meteorological winter and will bring brief blasts of cold air that will trigger lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes region. The opposite setup occurred last winter when little lake-effect was seen in these areas last December.
Pastelok says big changes will unfold during the opening weeks of 2025, as a new weather pattern will likely lead to milder temperatures and less snow across the eastern half of the nation. Even at ski resorts where there is a healthy base of snow in the eastern U.S., slopes may turn icy as the snow melts during the daytime and then freezes overnight.
"The heart of the ski season can be rough in the East," Pastelok said. “Snow will melt on the slopes during mild afternoons and refreeze at night. We could end up with very icy conditions at times.”
A backend surge to winter could bring the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Vally and through the Northeast. The risk of snow may also be accompanied by the polar vortex.
"The Northeast and mid-Atlantic ski season could be saved late if this occurs," Pastelok said.
AccuWeather long-range experts say New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Chicago are expected to see more snow this winter, compared to last year, especially with the opportunity for colder air and snow in February.
Pastelok says Chicago and Buffalo could end up with more snow by the end of this winter season, compared to the historical average.
Snow Outlook in the West
After weeks of summerlike heat baking parts of the western U.S. in late September and early October, AccuWeather long-range experts say the heat will soon fade and the wet season will shift into gear before the official arrival of winter.
"I think skiing in the West is looking really good. I think it's going to get kick-started right in time for the holiday season,” said Pastelok.
The frequency of rain will gradually trend upward in November and December, along with snow in the mountains. Atmospheric rivers and storms from the Pacific Ocean will focus on the Northwest and Northern California before traversing over the Rocky Mountains as winter gets underway in December.
AccuWeather long-range experts are warning that big changes will arrive around the New Year.
"Look for a potential shift in the storm track mid-winter," Pastelok said.
This new pattern will allow storms to track farther south over Central and Southern California and push inland. January could be the wettest month of the winter for Los Angeles and San Diego, as well as areas farther inland across the Southwest.
In February, the storms track is expected to shift north, once again focusing on the Pacific Northwest and northern and central Rockies. As a result, the ski season could come to an early end at the ski resorts in the mountains of Southern California, northern Arizona, and New Mexico.
La Niña winters typically do not result in frequent atmospheric rivers in California, but with a weaker La Niña predicted this winter, it could allow for other factors to dictate the West Coast weather pattern. This is what happened in the La Niña winter of 2022-2023 when nearly 40 atmospheric rivers hit the western U.S.
Severe Weather Threat this Winter
While much of the focus will be on winter storms, colder air and snow this winter, Pastelok says the patterns and factors influencing winter storms could also trigger rounds of severe weather.
“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January and February,” said Pastelok. “With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf Coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”
AccuWeather long-range experts warn that severe weather can happen at any time of year with conducive environmental conditions. Tornadoes have been documented during every month of the year in the U.S. Tornadoes have also occurred in all 50 states.
Mild Winter in Florida after Multiple Hurricane Hits
AccuWeather long-range experts are forecasting a comfortable and relatively quiet winter across much of Florida, following three landfalls from Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.
Pastelok says beach towns, cities, and attractions in Florida that were not damaged by hurricane impacts this year will be a nice vacation spot this winter, with higher temperatures and less rainfall compared to the historical averages.
The potential for a damaging frost or freeze in the citrus growing region is low this winter. Conditions are expected to be mainly dry except for a passing cold front.
Pastelok says this winter forecast is good news for Florida following damaging winds in citrus groves during Hurricane Milton and torrential rainfall that has led to river flooding that could last for weeks.
“It has been a very rough hurricane season for a lot of people in Florida, especially citrus growers. They deserve a break, and we expect them to get one, with a very pleasant and mild winter on tap,” said Pastelok.
AccuWeather Forecast Graphics
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
Hurricane Helene to roar ashore in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3
AccuWeather Issues Forecast for Tropical Storm Helene Earlier Than Any Other Known Source
Hurricane Tracking & Storm Radar
Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes Near Coastline Pose Major Threat To US This Season