U.S. Gulf Coast on alert for possible tropical impacts 

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Nov. 1, 2024

AccuWeather hurricane experts are sounding the alarm for a brewing tropical threat that could bring direct impacts to the Gulf Coast of the United States late next week into next weekend. 

AccuWeather was the first source to issue a track and intensity forecast on Saturday afternoon. AccuWeather hurricane experts designated the brewing storm in the Caribbean Sea a tropical rainstorm on Saturday afternoon to help raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property.   

"The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn across Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands. It is not out of the question it becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean prior to reaching Jamaica or Cuba," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert. "This rain can lead to flash flooding, landslides, and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.” 

Water temperatures in the Caribbean Sea remain warm enough to help foster tropical organization and strengthening. Disruptive breezes, called wind shear, also remain low in the region. AccuWeather hurricane experts are calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday night. 

A wide swath of 1-2 inches of rain is expected to occur across Jamaica northward into Cuba. Heavier rain of 4-8 inches can occur close to the track of the storm over western Cuba and central Jamaica with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches in the highest terrain. 

Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected from Jamaica through central and western Cuba as the storm moves across the region. A small area near where the storm makes landfall in Cuba could experience higher gusts of 60-80 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph.  

AccuWeather hurricane experts say the tropical rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Jamaica and Cuba. 

A 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes warns of localized flooding, damage to unanchored mobile homes, localized power outages, and coastal inundation resulting in some property damage 

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.     

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says families, businesses, emergency officials, and government leaders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor forecast updates.  

“We’re in the final month of hurricane season, and we’re expecting one to three named storms to develop this month,” said DaSilva. “There have only been three hurricane landfalls in the United States during the month of November since 1900. They all made landfall in Florida. We’ve never seen a tropical storm or hurricane on record make landfall in Texas or Louisiana during the month of November.” 

This has been a hurricane season of unusual happenings ranging from Beryl's intensity so early in the Caribbean to the lull in activity that occurred during prime time in late August to early September. 

Five officially named systems have made landfall in the U.S., and another yet unnamed tropical storm struck the Carolinas. The record number of landfalls in the U.S. in a single season was in 2020, with a dozen rolling ashore. 

“This has been an extremely impactful hurricane season, and it’s not over yet. AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss from landfalling storms in the U.S. this year is approaching $500 billion,” said DaSilva.  

Second Storm in the Atlantic Basin 

Subtropical Storm Patty formed just west of the Azores early Saturday morning and is tracking east toward Portugal. 

AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is another area being monitored for tropical development close and just to the north of the Caribbean over the southwestern Atlantic during the first few days of November. 

Because the area near and southeast of the Bahamas is in a zone of much higher wind shear, it is less likely to develop. However, its proximity to land warrants close monitoring. 

The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara. 

AccuWeather Forecast Graphics

Additional AccuWeather Resources:

Tropical storm likely to brew in Caribbean, may reach US

Severe storms, flooding to impact central US through Election Day